OUFRIDby Imad Oufrid

🌱 Breaking the "low-end product + inflated price" cycle: building a sustainable online business

🌐 Français · English · العربية

Mediocre product, inflated price, refusals, losses, an even higher price: many COD stores go round in circles. The mechanism, the numbers, and a concrete plan to build a profitable brand on trust.

In short

1. The vicious circle, step by step

COD losses (refusals, fake orders) + ad costs
        → inflated price (often 3x the product cost)
        → gap between the price paid and the quality received
        → refusals, bad reviews, general distrust
        → more "defensive" COD and more refusals
        → higher COD losses → an even higher price…

This diagram sums up the analysis in oufrid.com's research brief (October 2026). Here is what supports it, and what remains unproven.

What is documented

What is not proven

What I see in the field

Many of the sellers I meet buy entry-level products, often from China, and inflate the price to absorb returns and delivery problems. The buyer then overpays for a mediocre product, or refuses it, which creates even more returns. For most of them, the business stays fragile: one pricier campaign or one courier remitting late is enough to push them into the red. I don't think it's a matter of individual morals: it's a system. The good news is that you can get out of it with numbers.

2. Why an inflated price destroys trust… and the market

  1. When the parcel is opened, the customer compares. A MAD 249 product that "looks like" MAD 80 disappoints, even if it matches the photo.
  2. Disappointment turns into refusals, then bad reviews, then distrust. The next customer arrives more suspicious, picks COD "to protect themselves" (Febrayer, 2025), and refuses more readily.
  3. Distrust hits everyone, honest sellers included. "Trust does not collapse on only one side," writes Fouad Ouaggad, formerly of YouCan (2026).
  4. The legal risk is real. Law 31-08 bans advertising that is "false or likely to mislead" about qualities, origin or price (Article 21). The penalty is MAD 50,000 to 250,000, and up to MAD 1,000,000 for a company; the advertiser is primarily liable, and the court can order the conviction to be published (Articles 174–175, text of the law).

3. The maths: delivery is worth more than price

Illustrative example, calculated with the model and assumptions of oufrid.com's research brief (October 2026): 100 orders received, product costing MAD 80 sold at MAD 249, delivery MAD 35, return MAD 10, packaging MAD 5, confirmation MAD 10, ads MAD 25 per order received (unsourced assumption), 10% of returned goods damaged (assumption). Fees come from the Cathedis rate card and the Swiftlog comparison (2026).

Why the 3x price exists

Price / product costMaximum ad cost per order before losing money (typical scenario: 65% confirmed, 75% delivered)
MAD 249 / 80 (3.1x)about MAD 53
MAD 149 / 80 (1.9x, "honest price")about MAD 4: unworkable
MAD 199 / 110 (better quality, 1.8x)about MAD 13

With an average funnel, selling at a fair price requires almost free advertising. The 3x price is therefore a mechanical consequence of COD losses and acquisition costs.

What each lever is worth

Starting point: typical scenario, profit of MAD 2,765 per 100 orders.

Lever (everything else unchanged)Profit per 100 ordersGain
Starting point (65% / 75%, MAD 249)MAD 2,765—
+10 points of confirmation (65 → 75%)MAD 3,575+810
Price +MAD 20 (MAD 269), same ratesMAD 3,740+975
+10 points of delivery (75 → 85%)MAD 3,753+988
Price +MAD 30 (MAD 279) but −5 points of delivery (75 → 70%)MAD 3,636+871
Optimised scenario (80% / 88%, free returns)MAD 5,657+2,892

Calculations for this guide using the brief's model. The two price-change rows are assumptions: nobody has measured how a price rise affects refusals.

Key point: in this example, 1 point of delivery rate is worth about MAD 2 of price (about MAD 99 versus MAD 49 of profit per 100 orders). But you earn a delivery point by building trust, whereas a price rise risks destroying it: the price rise only "wins" if it doesn't drive customers away, and nobody can guarantee that.

And a better product at a fair price?

Same calculation for a product costing MAD 110 sold at MAD 199:

SituationProfit per 100 orders
Typical funnel (65% / 75%), ads at MAD 25−MAD 1,184
Optimised funnel (80% / 88%), ads at MAD 25−MAD 4 (break-even)
Optimised funnel, ads at MAD 15 per order (assumption: more repeat customers and referrals)+MAD 996

The honest conclusion: quality alone is not enough. You need to raise the delivery rate and bring down the acquisition cost at the same time. That is exactly what a brand customers trust makes possible.

👉 Test your own numbers with the COD profit calculator and its "What if…?" simulator.

4. Quality sourcing

Always order samples

  1. Order 2 or 3 samples from 2 or 3 different suppliers, at the real price, delivered to your country.
  2. Test them like a customer: real use for several days, washing for textiles, a drop test for accessories, battery life for devices.
  3. Work out the full landed cost: price, shipping and duties. Since 1 July 2022 (Decree 2.22.438), online purchases from abroad are no longer exempt from customs duties in Morocco (Bladi, 2022).
  4. Keep a reference sample: every new batch is compared against it.

Quality-control checklist when a batch arrives

Favour nearby suppliers where you can

A local or regional supplier shortens lead times (and therefore refusals), makes exchanges easier and lets you visit the workshop. The kslab blog cites +120% volume growth for local brands in 2025, a figure attributed to a vendor (CODRocket) and therefore anecdotal (kslab, 2026). It isn't proof, but it's an avenue worth testing with your customers.

5. An honest, readable price

6. Transparent content

7. Reviews, after-sales service and warranties

Verifiable reviews

Send an SMS or WhatsApp message 3 days after delivery asking for a review (kslab, 2026). Publish negative reviews along with your reply: that is what makes the positive ones credible.

Hello [First name], it's [Store name].
Your [product] arrived 3 days ago: is everything OK?
Any problem? Reply here and we'll sort it out.
Happy with it? Your review helps other customers: [link]

Warranties: what the law says (Morocco)

After-sales service that answers

A WhatsApp number that replies the same day, a simple exchange procedure, a refund within 15 days at most as the law requires (Article 37). Every problem handled well turns a disappointed customer into a returning one: the lowest acquisition cost there is.

8. Gradually moving customers to prepayment

COD doesn't have to disappear, but it can become one option among others.

Where electronic payment stands

The levers, from gentlest to firmest

  1. A 3–5% discount for card payment (Eurastech, 2026) or priority delivery.
  2. Card or wallet payment at the door (mobile terminal, QR code), if your courier offers it.
  3. A 10–20% deposit (eGrow, 2026) or MAD 20–50 above MAD 300 (Swiftlog).
  4. COD only for baskets under MAD 300, prepayment for appliances, made-to-measure and B2B (kslab, 2026).
  5. Prepayment for customers who have already refused several parcels, with an announced rule and in compliance with Law 09-08.

Eurastech (an agency, drawing on its own experience) suggests aiming for a 70/30 COD/card mix, then 40/60 over 18 to 24 months. Treat it as a rough idea, not a norm: move at your customers' pace.

9. The transition plan, step by step

Step 1 (month 1): see clearly

Step 2 (months 1–2): clean up the offer

Step 3 (months 2–3): make delivery reliable

Step 4 (months 3–4): build proof

Step 5 (months 4–6): lower your acquisition cost

Step 6 (month 6 onwards): open up prepayment

Further reading

Need help?

I work with online sellers who want to move from a fragile model to a lasting brand: offer strategy, product pages and content, SEO, confirmation workflows and conversion optimisation. To talk it through, see my e-commerce services or get in touch.

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